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Quantification of hazards

Quantification is the introduction of quantitative characteristics for the evaluation of complex, qualitatively defined concepts.

Applied numerical, point and other methods of quantification. The most common hazard assessment is the risk.

In. Marshall gives the following definition: the risk — frequency of occurrence.

Quantification is the ratio of the number of those or other adverse effects to their possible number for a certain period. Determining the risk, you must specify the class of consequences, t. e. to answer the question: the risk of what?

Formally, risk is the frequency. But essentially between these concepts is a significant difference, unnecessarily. with respect to security concerns about the possible number of adverse effects have to say with some degree of conditionality.

Distinguish individual and social the risk.

Individual risk characterizes the risk of a certain kind for a particular individual.

Social risk (more precisely - group) - is the risk for a group of people. Social risk - this dependence between frequency of events and number of affected people in this case.

For comparison of risk and benefits, many experts propose to introduce the economic equivalent of a human life. This approach was objectionable among a certain group of people, that claim, that human life is sacred and the financial transaction is invalid.

In practice, however, inevitably arises the need for such assessment in order to human security, if the question is: "How much to expend funds, to save human life?" According to foreign studies, human life is estimated from 650 thousand. to 7 million. $ . USA.

It should be noted, what is the procedure for determining the risk very approximate. It is possible to allocate 4 methodological approach to the definition of risk.

1) Engineering, based on statistics, calculate frequencies, probabilistic safety assessment, building trees danger.

2) Model, based on the construction of models of influence of harmful factors on the individual, social, professional groups and t. p.

3) Expert, when the probability of events is determined on the basis of a survey of experienced professionals, ie. experts.

4) Sociological, based on the population survey. These methods reflect different aspects of risk. Therefore, it is necessary to apply them in the complex.

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